Real Estate Still Years Away from a Sustainable Recovery!


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An eternal optimist, Liu-Yue built two social enterprises to help make the world a better place. Liu-Yue co-founded Oxstones Investment Club a searchable content platform and business tools for knowledge sharing and financial education. also provides investors with direct access to U.S. commercial real estate opportunities and other alternative investments. In addition, Liu-Yue also co-founded Cute Brands a cause-oriented character brand management and brand licensing company that creates social awareness on global issues and societal challenges through character creations. Prior to his entrepreneurial endeavors, Liu-Yue worked as an Executive Associate at M&T Bank in the Structured Real Estate Finance Group where he worked with senior management on multiple bank-wide risk management projects. He also had a dual role as a commercial banker advising UHNWIs and family offices on investments, credit, and banking needs while focused on residential CRE, infrastructure development, and affordable housing projects. Prior to M&T, he held a number of positions in Latin American equities and bonds investment groups at SBC Warburg Dillon Read (Swiss Bank), OFFITBANK (the wealth management division of Wachovia Bank), and in small cap equities at Steinberg Priest Capital Management (family office). Liu-Yue has an MBA specializing in investment management and strategy from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Marketing from Stern School of Business at NYU. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.

By Liu-Yue (Louie) Lam, Oxstones Investment Club,

I believe the overall housing market is still years away from a sustainable recovery.  But real estate has always been a location specific asset class and some regions will recover faster than other regions. The housing areas that had experienced the biggest declines will also be further along the recovery process. 

But don’t expect a sharp recovery.  The market has been slow to recover even with record low interest rates and favorable government policies to aid housing markets including delays in foreclosures.  In some states it could potentially take up to 24 months for foreclosures to work its way through the legal system.  For example check out NYC foreclosures at   In NYC we have one of the most cumbersome legal systems for foreclosures.  Current foreclosures are only at 1,847.  But pre-foreclosures are at 30,608.  That’s a lot of shadow inventory in the pipeline and it is just getting started.  The same scenario can be said for many other states ( too.  

So what happens once you take the housing market off the stimulus?  I think it will be some time before the housing market will be able to stand on its own without government support.  Banks are the largest real estate owners in the country with a huge backlog of shadow inventory that will take years to unload.  There are also significant head winds for the real estate market such as potential tax code reforms which could eliminate the mortgage deduction.  Lastly, higher real estate taxes are inevitable as state governments look for new revenue sources to fill budge gaps. 


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