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A banker turned social finance entrepreneur. Liu-Yue built and managed two social enterprises. Liu-Yue founded Oxstones Investment Club a searchable cloud-based content platform for knowledge sharing and financial education. Oxstones.com also provides global investors with direct access to U.S. commercial real estate investment opportunities and other alternative strategies. In addition, Liu-Yue also co-founded Cute Brands, Inc. Cute Brands is a cause-oriented character-based brand licensing and social impact fund that creates social awareness on global issues and societal challenges through character creations. Prior to his entrepreneurial endeavors, Liu-Yue worked as an Executive Associate at M&T Bank in the Structured Real Estate Finance Group where he worked with senior management on multiple bank-wide risk management projects. He also had a dual role as a commercial banker advising ultra high net worth clients on investments, credit, and banking needs while focused on residential CRE, infrastructure development, and affordable housing projects. Prior to M&T, he held a number of positions in emerging markets bonds and Latin American equities investment groups at SBC Warburg Dillon Read (Swiss Bank), OFFITBANK (the wealth management division of Wachovia Bank), and in small cap equities and special situation investing at Steinberg Priest Capital Management (family office). Liu-Yue has an MBA specializing in investment management and strategy from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Marketing from Stern School of Business at NYU. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.







By Liu-Yue (Louie) Lam, Oxstones Investment Club,

I believe the overall housing market is still years away from a sustainable recovery.  But real estate has always been a location specific asset class and some regions will recover faster than other regions. The housing areas that had experienced the biggest declines will also be further along the recovery process. 

But don’t expect a sharp recovery.  The market has been slow to recover even with record low interest rates and favorable government policies to aid housing markets including delays in foreclosures.  In some states it could potentially take up to 24 months for foreclosures to work its way through the legal system.  For example check out NYC foreclosures at www.foreclosure.com   In NYC we have one of the most cumbersome legal systems for foreclosures.  Current foreclosures are only at 1,847.  But pre-foreclosures are at 30,608.  That’s a lot of shadow inventory in the pipeline and it is just getting started.  The same scenario can be said for many other states (www.foreclosure.com) too.  

So what happens once you take the housing market off the stimulus?  I think it will be some time before the housing market will be able to stand on its own without government support.  Banks are the largest real estate owners in the country with a huge backlog of shadow inventory that will take years to unload.  There are also significant head winds for the real estate market such as potential tax code reforms which could eliminate the mortgage deduction.  Lastly, higher real estate taxes are inevitable as state governments look for new revenue sources to fill budge gaps. 

 

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