Gabelli’s Major Quarterly Changes to Focus Five Stock Pick List

05-Aug-2011

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An eternal optimist, Liu-Yue built two social enterprises to help make the world a better place. Liu-Yue co-founded Oxstones Investment Club a searchable content platform and business tools for knowledge sharing and financial education. Oxstones.com also provides investors with direct access to U.S. commercial real estate opportunities and other alternative investments. In addition, Liu-Yue also co-founded Cute Brands a cause-oriented character brand management and brand licensing company that creates social awareness on global issues and societal challenges through character creations. Prior to his entrepreneurial endeavors, Liu-Yue worked as an Executive Associate at M&T Bank in the Structured Real Estate Finance Group where he worked with senior management on multiple bank-wide risk management projects. He also had a dual role as a commercial banker advising UHNWIs and family offices on investments, credit, and banking needs while focused on residential CRE, infrastructure development, and affordable housing projects. Prior to M&T, he held a number of positions in Latin American equities and bonds investment groups at SBC Warburg Dillon Read (Swiss Bank), OFFITBANK (the wealth management division of Wachovia Bank), and in small cap equities at Steinberg Priest Capital Management (family office). Liu-Yue has an MBA specializing in investment management and strategy from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Marketing from Stern School of Business at NYU. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.

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By JON C. OGG , From 247WallSt,

August 1 might not sound like the start of a quarter to most, but this is that date of a key report from a unique brokerageand advisory firm.  Today marks the adjustment of Gabelli & Company “FOCUS FIVE” list for investors.  The last quarter was a rough one, but this list is still up about 190% since its January 31, 2006 launch versus a 1.6% drop for the S&P 500 Index.  The new FOCUS FIVE includes shares of Airgas Inc. (NYSE: ARG), CF Industries (NYSE: CF), Snyder’s-Lance Inc (NASDAQ: LNCE), TECO Energy Inc. (NYSE: TE), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO).

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is a repeat member here for the second quarter in a row.  The companies deleted from the list were as follows: Ascent Media Corporation (NASDAQ: ASCMA); Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: CCE); CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS); and Navistar International Corporation (NYSE: NAV).

Airgas Inc. (NYSE: ARG) is called “Gassed Up For Growth” with growth driven by manufacturing, medical, petrochemical, and utilities customers with 2012 sales growth of 11% and 35% earnings growth.  The old Air Products $70 bid is a plus, but Gabelli gave a private market value of $88 per share in 2012, implying more than 25% upside.

CF Industries (NYSE: CF) is called the “Fertilizer Boost” where increased demand from global crop shortages is fueling more plantings. Gabelli’s boost is somewhat based upon the belief that poor weather hurt crop yields and that the crop report will come in weaker than expected.  That should drive demand and offer earnings upside.  Its private market value was put at $230 per share in 2012, implying upside of close to 50%.

Snyder’s-Lance Inc (NASDAQ: LNCE) is the snack cracker company you know along with the Cape Cod chips brand and Gabelli sees earnings growing from $0.85 this year to $2.00 in 2015 as the private label business pressures ease along with a strong dividend.  Its private market value is $27.00 per share for 2012, implying about 30% upside.

TECO Energy Inc. (NYSE: TE) is featured as “Met Coal For Sale?” having long-term value and earnings power that should benefit from a constructive regulatory environment and favorable demographic trends. This is more of a special situation as Gabelli has a ‘sum of the parts’ analysis.  It derived a private market value of $28.00, implying just over 50% upside expectations.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is called “Time For Action” where the core business and its investments put in a floor for the stock when you consider the value in Alibaba and Yahoo! Japan.  The private market value was put at $21.00, implying more than 60% upside.  The Thomson Reuters consensus price target is ‘only’ $17.86 and that $21 level meets the high on Wall Street as far as analyst price target objectives.

 

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