Next US Stock Market Crash to Occur in 4Q 2015!


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Next US Stock Market Crash to Occur in 4Q 2015!


US households currently have a record net worth of $82.912 trillion, which is 22.17% above the late-2007 peak of $67.866 trillion and a stunning 50.86% above the post-crisis bottom of $54.959 trillion!

America’s total household net worth of $82.912 trillion equals an amazing 468.4% of GDPThis well exceeds America’s 2000 dot-com bubble peak household net worth as a % of GDP, which topped out at 443.03% of GDP.

However, despite current US household net worth exceeding the late-2007 peak by 22.17% nominally, as a percentage of GDP – we are still slightly below the record high reached in late-2007 of 472.9%. If nominal household net worth rises just 1% more to $83.741 trillionits % of GDP will reach a new all-time high of 473%.


America’s long-term median household net worth as a % of GDP is only 365.13%, which would currently give America total household net worth of only $64.642 trillion or 22% below current levels. In NIA’s opinion, the US economicbubble is approaching its peak with remaining nominal net worth upside of only 1% and dramatic short-term downside of 22%. In other words, America’s household net worth currently has 22X more downside risk than upside potential!

Today’s bubble economy has become much more dangerous than the 2007 bubble that led to the financial crisis.Historically, from the start of the secular bull market for stocks in 1982 through today, a median of 18.65% of US household net worth has come from the valuation of stocks/mutual funds owned by US households. Currently, stocks/mutual funds account for a very dangerous 25.53% of US household net worth – the most since 2000 at the peak of the dot-com bubble when a record 29.42% of US household net worth came from the valuations of stocks/mutual funds. In late-2007 when US household net worth reached a new all-time high as a % of GDP of 472.9%, the economy was actually much more diversified – with only 22.61% of household net worth coming from stocks/mutual funds.


Soon when the Fed releases 1Q 2015 data it will likely be the 5th consecutive quarter of stocks/mutual funds owned by US households accounting for a dangerously high % of US household net worth. During the dot-com bubble, stocks/mutual funds were worth a dangerously high % of US household net worth for a total of seven straight quarters– before the market finally crashed!

If history repeats itself, the next US stock market crash will occur during the 4Q of 2015!

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