By Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist We’ve seen a huge run in crude oil. We started at $150, dropped to $30, and now it’s over $100 again. Where are we going with energy and crude oil? But haven’t we seen the demand on the user side decline? People have really changed driving habits. $4 a gallon at the pump. We actually have seen pretty strong truck sales here in recent months, which suggests that maybe consumers have become accustomed to higher energy prices, and maybe we won’t see as much of a price sensitivity and demand this time around. Certainly we saw Super Bowl ads dominated by cars…so is the automobile industry back? Arguably, I think that was inflated by the credit bubble—you could pretty much finance a car if you had a pulse, but nowadays it’s a lot harder. We’re still at $12 million annualized sales, up from $9.5 million at the lows. Not back up to that $16, $17, and $18 million annualized sales, but certainly very strong. Look at China. China is now the world’s largest automobile market. That’s a big shift. The US held that title for over a century, so that’s been a major shift in the last couple of years. What advice would you give to people looking at the energy market? What we’re seeing is that at first, when crude oil prices rose off their lows, oil companies were a little hesitant to go out and spend big. Now we’re seeing those budgets really ramp up, and I think this year is going to be the year that you see a lot of exploration and development spending. Companies like Schlumberger (SLB). Weatherford (WFT) is another one I like a lot. Weatherford is interesting as well, because it doesn’t have quite as much exposure to fracturing as a service in the United States—meaning it has a little less natural-gas exposure in the United States, which I think is pretty good this time around. |
Tags: crude oil, energy, Schlumberger (SLB), Weatherford (WFT)