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An eternal optimist, Liu-Yue built two social enterprises to help make the world a better place. Liu-Yue co-founded Oxstones Investment Club a searchable content platform and business tools for knowledge sharing and financial education. Oxstones.com also provides investors with direct access to U.S. commercial real estate opportunities and other alternative investments. In addition, Liu-Yue also co-founded Cute Brands a cause-oriented character brand management and brand licensing company that creates social awareness on global issues and societal challenges through character creations. Prior to his entrepreneurial endeavors, Liu-Yue worked as an Executive Associate at M&T Bank in the Structured Real Estate Finance Group where he worked with senior management on multiple bank-wide risk management projects. He also had a dual role as a commercial banker advising UHNWIs and family offices on investments, credit, and banking needs while focused on residential CRE, infrastructure development, and affordable housing projects. Prior to M&T, he held a number of positions in Latin American equities and bonds investment groups at SBC Warburg Dillon Read (Swiss Bank), OFFITBANK (the wealth management division of Wachovia Bank), and in small cap equities at Steinberg Priest Capital Management (family office). Liu-Yue has an MBA specializing in investment management and strategy from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Marketing from Stern School of Business at NYU. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.







By Macromon, Global Macro Monitor,

We have ranked the world’s 2016 Current Account Balances (CAB) by country from largest deficit to largest surplus in the ginormous table below.  The data are from the October 2016 IMF’s World Economic Outlook database.  Note, 2016 are IMF estimates.

But, first, check out the current account balances of the G20.  The world has come along way from the big imbalances at the beginning of the Obama Administration.

g20_cab_dec21

What stands out is the big flip in Saudi Arabia.  A perennial exporter of foreign savings, the Kingdom is now is running a current account deficit and has to import capital or use up foreign reserves to support it.  The Saudi currency and financial markets have come under pressure as the current account surplus has flipped to deficit due to the collapse in oil prices.  Hence their desperation to raise oil prices.

saudi-currency_dec21

The next few years are going to be interesting.   If Mr. Trump gets his fiscal policy approved and implemented – large tax cuts and fiscal spending — by definition, the U.S. current account deficit is going to explode as it did under President Reagan,  moving from a small surplus in 1980 to a deficit in 1987 of 3.3 percent in 1987.

Remember the National Accounting Identity,

(S-I) + (T-G) = (X-M)

 (S-I) is the ‘private savings balance’ or the difference between private sector savings (S) and investment (I); (T-G) is the ‘government balance’ or the difference between tax receipts (T) and all government expenditure (G); (X-M) is the difference between exports (X) and imports (M) and is usually called the simple ‘current account balance’.  –

Add that to that a strong dollar, which we think the index goes to 120, and presto — exploding current account deficit and that “sucking sound”  you hear will be capital flowing in to the U.S. from the rest of the world.  President Trump will be very conflicted as we know he doesn’t like trade deficits.

 

g20_cab_dec21

World Current Account Balances by country,

World_CAB_Dec21.png

 

World Current Account Balances (CAB)

 

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