Will A Machine Replace You?

Courtney Boyd Myers, 06.22.09, 06:00 PM EDT

Your computer will steal your job, sell your house and send you the bill.

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In the early 19th century, British textile artisans protested the Industrial Revolution with the anti-technology “Luddite movement.” They believed mechanized looms would replace them and make their jobs obsolete. They were right.

Automation in the 19th century was the disruptive equivalent of high-speed digital technology today, which is replacing jobs in the manufacturing and service sectors at astonishing speeds. Self-checkout counters at the grocery store, complete with laser scanners to read bar codes, are starting to replace human cashiers. On the road, the advent of EZPass and other computerized toll machines are replacing human tollbooth collectors. Electronic passes are cheaper, more efficient and keep traffic flowing at faster speeds. It’s only a matter of time before EZPass, or a similar system, finds its way into every car.

In Pictures: Will A Machine Replace You?

Military robots and “unmanned systems” are better suited than human soldiers for “dull, dirty or dangerous missions.” In Iraq, patrolling flights can be up to 40 hours long, which results in a very fatigued two-person crew, whereas unmanned or robotic planes never get tired. Also in Iraq, military robots have defused over 10,000 roadside bombs, which are responsible for 40% of U.S. casualties there. According to ethics and emerging technologies specialist Patrick Lin, the U.S. had no ground robots in Iraq or Afghanistan in 2003, but now has over 12,000 robots on the ground and 7,000 in the air.

What jobs are secure from the onslaught of automation? Ben Goertzel says, “those that involve transferring knowledge from one area to another, or thinking broadly, creatively and integratively, because these [tasks] require powerful general intelligence, not just narrowly specialized intelligence.” Its no wonder skilled engineers are the most sought after workers in today’s lousy employment market.

Jobs with a particularly low cognitive load, like managing a Blockbuster store, are in particular danger. Blockbuster rental stores were slapped in the face when Netflix, the powerhouse of online DVD rentals, introduced an online mail order service–without late fees. Blockbuster has since opened up an online store, which is sure to hire programmers and software developers, evidence that while some jobs become obsolete, more intellectually demanding jobs are created.

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Web start-ups like Zillow.com, Trulia.com and automation.com allow customers more transparency in purchasing choices. “Middle man” jobs like car salesman and real estate agent will slowly be replaced by cheaper-to-use Web-based alternatives. Cable television advertisers will need to readjust their business models before they become obsolete, as technology like web broadcasting, TiVo and DVR take over TV.

Computers will create new jobs, including some we don’t know about yet. But for now, see what happens when a computer does what you do–only better.


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