Oxstones Investment Club™According to the latest PMR Publications’ report “Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2011”, the pharmaceutical market in Poland will be worth PLN 30.9bn (€8bn) in 2011 in final prices, 4% more than a year earlier. The increase in OTC sales will exceed that of the disappointing year 2010, but this will not counterbalance the weak sales of reimbursed drugs. The sales of the latter might be at their most fruitful directly before the introduction of fixed margins and prices, which will take place, in accordance with the latest draft Reimbursement Act, on 1 January 2012.
Moderate increases expected on pharmacy market between 2010 and 2013
In 2010 the Polish pharmaceutical market grew by just 2%, to PLN 29.7bn (€7.4bn), the lowest figure in years, according to PMR estimates. The slowdown is attributed in part to a high comparative base (an 9% year-on-year increase in 2009), as sales in 2009 were boosted by the early peak of the flu season and concerns about swine flu, which impeded the increase in early 2010. Between 2011 and 2013 we expect relatively modest sales on the overall pharmaceutical market. The main reasons are the anticipated cuts in reimbursement and the reduction in the purchasing power of patients with regard to reimbursed drugs (as a result of changes to the reimbursement system in Poland which are to come into force in 2012).
Stagnation of the hospital market
According to our forecasts, the hospital market, which depends largely on public subsidies, will stagnate in the next three years, assuming an increase in value, of 0%-1% to PLN 2.9bn (€0.7) in 2013. It is expected that this will reflect cuts in spending: for example in 2010 the NFZ (National Health Fund) spent approximately PLN 1.6bn (€400m) on drug therapy programmes i.e. 33% y-o-y more, but in 2011 it intends to spend as much as PLN 1.5bn (€366m), which is 6% y-o-y less (the only reduction in spending between 2005 and 2011).
Sensory organ preparations and anitneoplastic and immunomodulating agents to be market drivers between 2011 and 2013
Between 2011 and 2013, the market will be driven by sales of sensory organ preparations (with a CAGR of 10%), antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents (with a CAGR of 9%), and drugs in the “Blood and blood forming organs” category (a CAGR of 7%). The incidence of ailments such as glaucoma, cancer and anaemia, along with deep vein thrombosis, which directly affects the sales of drugs in these categories, is increasing among the Polish public. Sales of preparations in the “Parasitology” ATC category will also grow more rapidly than the overall market, but this category accounts for an insignificant portion of the market.
This press release was based on PMR’s latest report „Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2011. Development forecasts for 2011-2013“.
About PMR
PMR is a British-American company providing market information, advice and services to international businesses interested in Central and Eastern European countries as well as other emerging markets. PMR’s key areas of operation include business publications (through PMR Publications), consultancy (through PMR Consulting) and market research (through PMR Research). Being present on the market since 1995, employing highly skilled staff, offering high international standards in projects and publications, providing one of most frequently visited and top-ranked websites, PMR is one of the largest companies of its type in the region.
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