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By Mark Gongloff, WSJ,

One of the most convincing cases often made by the stock-market bulls is that stocks are super cheap, with interest rates at rock bottom and the S&P 500 trading at just 13 times forecast earnings for the 2011. But the market may not be as cheap as it appears — and it could get a lot cheaper, according to a note today from Morgan Stanley equity strategist Adam Parker.

First, Mr. Parker shoots all kinds of holes in the market-is-cheap theory. For one thing, the market is only slightly cheaper today than its average forward P/E of 13.6, dating back to 1976.

And the market isn’t cheap at all using other ratios, such as price-to-sales (1.4x, compared with a long-term average of 1.1x), price-to-book (2.3x compared with a long-term average of 2.2x) or price-to-trailing earnings (16.1x compared with a long-term average of 17.8x).

Meanwhile, the S&P 500′s dividend yield of just 1.7% is way below an average of 2.7% dating back to 1964.

And this one is maybe the most interesting: Mr. Parker argues that the biggest-cap companies are providing most of the stock market’s cheapness, leaving the rest of the market fairly valued. If the biggest 30 stocks are excluded, the market’s forward P/E ratio is 13.5x, nearly matching the historical average. The biggest 30 stocks are trading at 11.5x forward earnings (an echo of the WSJ story today about how investors have abandoned big-cap tech).

“Our view is that the mega caps are undervalued and the rest of the market (stocks 31 through 500) are modestly overvalued,” Mr. Parker writes.

And now the kicker: The market will likely get even cheaper. Analyst earnings forecasts are now way above their long-term average, up 18.4% in the past year, compared with an average over the past 20 years of 7.91%. Earnings forecasts seem likely to fall back to earth, which alone could drive the market’s forward earnings multiple down to 10.6x, Mr. Parker estimates.

Meanwhile, Mr. Parker estimates that inflation-adjusted earnings growth has averaged 3.77% since 1948, and it will likely be lower than that in the next 10+ years, hurt by higher inflation and slower and more volatile economic growth around the world.

If he’s right, then the market is more expensive now than it seems. His forecast is that forward P/E will fall to 10.

Update: A commenter raised the issue of cash — the top 1500 companies have some $1.5 trillion in cash sitting on their balance sheets, fuel for future growth, stock buybacks, dividends, etc. That should make the market more attractive, but Mr. Parker dismantles this one, too, saying companies have net debt near pre-Internet bubble levels, that much of the cash is overseas and must be repatriated and that investors have been cutting the premium they’re willing to pay for corporate cash in recent years.