Oxstones Food for Thought – Black Swan Brewing in the Middle East

30-Jan-2011

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A banker turned social finance entrepreneur. Liu-Yue built and managed two social enterprises. Liu-Yue founded Oxstones Investment Club a searchable cloud-based content platform for knowledge sharing and financial education. Oxstones.com also provides global investors with direct access to U.S. commercial real estate investment opportunities and other alternative strategies. In addition, Liu-Yue also co-founded Cute Brands, Inc. Cute Brands is a cause-oriented character-based brand licensing and social impact fund that creates social awareness on global issues and societal challenges through character creations. Prior to his entrepreneurial endeavors, Liu-Yue worked as an Executive Associate at M&T Bank in the Structured Real Estate Finance Group where he worked with senior management on multiple bank-wide risk management projects. He also had a dual role as a commercial banker advising ultra high net worth clients on investments, credit, and banking needs while focused on residential CRE, infrastructure development, and affordable housing projects. Prior to M&T, he held a number of positions in emerging markets bonds and Latin American equities investment groups at SBC Warburg Dillon Read (Swiss Bank), OFFITBANK (the wealth management division of Wachovia Bank), and in small cap equities and special situation investing at Steinberg Priest Capital Management (family office). Liu-Yue has an MBA specializing in investment management and strategy from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Marketing from Stern School of Business at NYU. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.







By Liu-Yue (Louie) Lam, Co-founder, CEO, & Chief Investment Strategist, Oxstone Capital Management

The ongoing crisis in Egypt is much more important than people realize. I think the scary black swan scenario is that this crisis leads to a contagion effect across MENA.  Much like the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 90’s led to political turnover across southeast Asia including Indonesia, the current crisis may lead to political turnover across the middle east.  Which middle east country will this crisis engulf next? Iran? Saudi Arabia? That would be scary!

Social discontent from soaring food prices and the growing income gap between the rich and poor are fueling thoughts of revolution.  There is also a darker element behind the scenes as potential extremist groups and opportunists seek to exploit the masses of social unrest to grab for control and ruling power.  Which is better?  The old dictatorial regimes or a newer unknown ruling class?  Think of  Iraq and beware.

The continue crisis may lead to gold at $1,800 and oil at $200 which would lead to another global recession in short order. Be prepared.  Geopolitics and macro events will impact your portfolio.

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