Oxstones Food for Thought – Black Swan Brewing in the Middle East

30-Jan-2011

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An eternal optimist, Liu-Yue built two social enterprises to help make the world a better place. Liu-Yue co-founded Oxstones Investment Club a searchable content platform and business tools for knowledge sharing and financial education. Oxstones.com also provides investors with direct access to U.S. commercial real estate opportunities and other alternative investments. In addition, Liu-Yue also co-founded Cute Brands a cause-oriented character brand management and brand licensing company that creates social awareness on global issues and societal challenges through character creations. Prior to his entrepreneurial endeavors, Liu-Yue worked as an Executive Associate at M&T Bank in the Structured Real Estate Finance Group where he worked with senior management on multiple bank-wide risk management projects. He also had a dual role as a commercial banker advising UHNWIs and family offices on investments, credit, and banking needs while focused on residential CRE, infrastructure development, and affordable housing projects. Prior to M&T, he held a number of positions in Latin American equities and bonds investment groups at SBC Warburg Dillon Read (Swiss Bank), OFFITBANK (the wealth management division of Wachovia Bank), and in small cap equities at Steinberg Priest Capital Management (family office). Liu-Yue has an MBA specializing in investment management and strategy from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Marketing from Stern School of Business at NYU. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.







By Liu-Yue (Louie) Lam, Co-founder, CEO, & Chief Investment Strategist, Oxstone Capital Management

The ongoing crisis in Egypt is much more important than people realize. I think the scary black swan scenario is that this crisis leads to a contagion effect across MENA.  Much like the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 90’s led to political turnover across southeast Asia including Indonesia, the current crisis may lead to political turnover across the middle east.  Which middle east country will this crisis engulf next? Iran? Saudi Arabia? That would be scary!

Social discontent from soaring food prices and the growing income gap between the rich and poor are fueling thoughts of revolution.  There is also a darker element behind the scenes as potential extremist groups and opportunists seek to exploit the masses of social unrest to grab for control and ruling power.  Which is better?  The old dictatorial regimes or a newer unknown ruling class?  Think of  Iraq and beware.

The continue crisis may lead to gold at $1,800 and oil at $200 which would lead to another global recession in short order. Be prepared.  Geopolitics and macro events will impact your portfolio.

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