Africa investor Weekly Commentary – 16 September 2013

17-Sep-2013

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Brian has held positions with a variety of financial services companies, including Cantor Fitzgerald and FTI Consulting. An avid traveler and investor, Brian enjoys scouring emerging and frontier markets for hidden gems (Oxstones). Brian holds an M.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Georgetown University and a B.A. in economics and political science from Rutgers University. He also completed graduate studies in international management at the University of Oxford, Trinity College.







Ai40 Index observers breathed a sigh of relief as the Index finally managed to record a substantial gain. The Index gained 2.3% on the back of a large jump by Mobinil shares: this amounted to a 2.59-point increase from last week’s value of 110.93 to close the week at a value of 113.52.

In US markets, movement is bound to be affected by the US Federal Reserve as it begins to taper its quantitative easing programme. Economic recovery will be tested by the eventual removal of US $85 billion a month. However, last week the US economy saw some good news in that first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped sharply to levels not seen since 2006.

Friday’s close saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average move up 75.42 points (0.49%) to reach a value of 15,376.06. The Nasdaq moved up 0.17%, or 6.216 points, to close at a value of 3,722.18, while the S&P 500 gained 4.57 points (0.27%).

Gainers
Egyptian telecommunications firm Mobinil topped the list of gainers this week with an amazing price jump of 29.8%. The company has been negotiating a LE2.5bn ($357 million) syndicated loan with four banks for expansion purposes. Mobinil is the oldest mobile carrier in Egypt, and has a third of the market share. It’s share price moved to $18.25.

Egypt and South Africa dominated the rest of the list. South Africa’s MTN Group and Anglo Platinum took second and third place respectively; they gained 8.3% and 7.1% apiece. Egypt’s Commercial International Bank and real estate developer TMG Holdings then rounded out the top five with 6.8% and 6.6%. Egypt’s markets have remained largely stable since the ousting of former president Hosni Mubarak and stocks have performed well.

Losers
It was a real mixed bag of geographies and sectors represented on the losers list this week. Although losses weren’t enormous, the worst performer was AngloGold Ashanti, which recorded a drop of 4.6%. Good news however: the company’s rating was recently upgraded to a “neutral” rating by JP Morgan.

Ghana’s Tullow Oil, State Bank of Mauritius and Tunisia’s Poulina Group Holding took the next three positions with losses of 2.6%, 3.9% and 3.9% respectively. Kenya Commercial Bank was the best of the worst with a decrease in price of 2.4%. Tullow Oil dropped on the back of news that the company will be closing production its Jubilee Field in Ghana for three weeks for maintenance.

For more on the Ai40 Index, please visit the Africa investor website at www.africainvestor.com.

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